Article - Hydrogen Aviation: Realistic or Crash Scenario?

Hydrogen investments are growing: €9bn in Germany to accelerate hydrogen production by 2040, €1.5bn in France to build a hydrogen-powered prototype aircraft between 2026 and 2028, £12bn in the United Kingdom to build a 4GW wind farm for hydrogen production, etc.

To summarize, hydrogen is a trendy topic, especially in civil aviation, where the promise of decarbonized aviation in 2035 is catching everyone's attention. But what are the challenges to achieve this goal?

Redesigning and certifying the aircraft

Balancing zero emissions, economic viability, and production capacity

• “Grey" hydrogen: produced from fossil fuels. More polluting and more expensive than kerosene, grey hydrogen has no interest in this context.
• “Blue" hydrogen: produced using carbon capture and/or nuclear energy. Approximately 3 times less polluting than kerosene; its use is estimated to increase the price of the plane ticket by about 10%.
• “Green" hydrogen: produced by electrolysis. Its carbon impact is estimated to be 6 times less than kerosene, but its financial impact on the price of the ticket is almost 20%.

Which energy mix?

Reinventing the supply chain

• H2 aircraft has proved to be feasible, however a long development and certification phase is expected.
• ‘Zero’-carbon aviation is technically achievable with H2. Today, its production is mostly “grey” and more polluting than burning kerosene.
• Immediate focus should be on infrastructures and supply. An H2 airplane without refueling capabilities is useless.
• H2 for aviation will benefit from a scale effect as many regions and industries are investing heavily in it.
• Production ramp up will be a massive challenge since a large amount of energy will be needed to generate H2: A full H2 scenario would require 35% of the current worldwide electricity generation capacity.
• E-fuels might play a role as a short to mid-term solution, especially for the already existing fleet, despite significant production costs.